Eagles To Cover vs. Raiders is our best spread of week 7, more bets for the end of Sunday
Four – you read that right – of our experts jump on the Eagles to cover at +3. Find out why they’re hot on Philadelphia as a road dog, plus a player prop and another big spread underdog bet.
NFL odds and picks
Eagles vs. Raiders
Chris Raybon: They’re two average teams, so the market is likely overstating the Raiders’ home advantage here, especially with the Eagles on long rest after Thursday night’s game.
The Eagles lead the heaviest program in the NFL under defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, which should limit splash play from Derek Carr, who is averaging 2.8 yards less per attempt against zone than the man. Carr’s primary target Darren Waller could also be under 100% after being added to the injury report on Saturday with an ankle problem.
This is one of those games that fits our “Road Dog, Low Total After a Bad Season” PRO trend on Action Labs that I’ve filtered out slightly to account for higher totals in the modern age and to remove the meaningless games at the end of the season.
Eagles vs. Raiders
Stucky: The Raiders appear to be playing up or down against their competition, making them an intriguing underdog and an unappetizing favorite. Look no further than their previous two home games against the Bears and Dolphins in which Las Vegas lost to Chicago with a rookie quarterback and needed extra time to beat a Miami team to a win playing with a Backup QB.
More importantly, I love the on-field clashes for Philadelphia from both sides of the ball. On offense, the Eagles will recover Lane Johnson on the right tackle, meaning Jordan Mailata will return to the left tackle. This gives Philly one of the most dominant tackling duos in the NFL, which will be essential against a Vegas team that generates a lot of edge pressure.
Jalen Hurts and an Eagles rush attack that ranks No.1 in the Explosive Run% should exploit those aggressive ends in the play options game against a Raiders defense that ranks 27th in the same category. I also think Hurts will have plenty of opportunities to hit shots down against a beaten Raiders secondary.
On the other side of the ball, how do you slow down Derek Carr? By getting natural pressure without blitzing. Well, that’s exactly the profile of this Eagles defense, which has one of the strongest defensive lines in the league. The interior in particular should have a ton of success as it crumbles against a vulnerable Raiders interior offensive line.
Moreover, at the back, new coordinator Jonathan Gannon insisted on not giving up explosive passes. Philly actually ranks second in this category, which is essential against an attack from Vegas who made a living with explosive passes, ranking No.1 so far this season. Plus, a little extra and some preparation for the Eagles after playing last Thursday night won’t hurt. I’ll gladly take the +3 in a game that should be closer to a coin-flip with distinct match advantages for Philly on both sides of the ball.
Eagles vs. Raiders
Rahim Palmer: The underdog has covered every Raiders game this season, and I don’t expect that to change in Sunday’s game against the Eagles, who come to rest after their 28-22 loss to the Bucs on Thursday night. Football before week 6 goodbye.
My model makes this game more like a pick’em for the Raiders, so at +3 there is value in this game. The Eagles have played an extremely difficult schedule with games against the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Cowboys and 49ers who place first, second, fourth and 10th in offensive DVOA. In comparison, the Raiders are only 22nd in DVOA.
They are also 19th in EPA / play, 24th in success rate and 24th in early success rate and will face this defense from the Eagles, which is fourth in ESPN’s quick pass win rate (52%). Considering the Eagles’ ability to rush the passer, Derek Carr could struggle in this game as he sees his passer rating drop from 108.1 in a clean pocket to 72.7 when under pressure. Nonetheless, this attack – which is the first in terms of explosive passing play rate – likely won’t get any big plays against an Eagles defense that allows for an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 6.6 yards, the fifth in the NFL.
With RT Lane Johnson returning, Jalen Hurts should have time to pitch and put the Eagles in position to potentially win this game. I will back them at +3.
Eagles vs. Raiders
Billy Ward: The Eagles are better than their 2-4 record. Their losses have come in Kansas City, Tampa, Dallas and San Francisco. There are different ways to quantify it, but depending on the strength of the NFL schedule, the Eagles have faced the fourth toughest so far this season.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are 4-2 with the toughest 18th calendar yet. These teams are closer than you might think. The two have gone 3-3 ATS (ATS) this season. The coaching turmoil in Las Vegas can’t be great either. As the Riaders rallied to beat the Broncos last week, it will eventually catch up to them. This line opened at 3.5 before dropping to 3 in most places, with 2.5 already appearing.
The smart money has been on the Eagles so I’m betting that at 3, but I’m not going to quit the key number. Be sure to shop for the best real-time online with our NFL odds page.
Lions vs. Aries
Mike Randle: It’s a bet on the game’s script and head coach Sean McVay’s incentive to keep Darrel Henderson healthy. While Henderson won the majority of the opportunities against the Giants, the Rams would have always wanted to share races with Michel to limit injury issues for the fragile Henderson.
There’s no better time to give Michel opportunities than in a home game in which the Rams are favored by more than two touchdowns. Michel has only scored one touchdown in the past three weeks and hasn’t managed to reach 50 rushing yards in any of those games.
However, no NFL team has given away more fantastic runs to opposing backers than the Lions, who allowed the sixth-most rushing yards (687) and six rushing touchdowns, a league record. . I project the Rams to win this game comfortably, giving Michel his biggest share of the rush of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michel win more races at Henderson in the second half.
We are projecting Michel for eight staves in our Action Labs prop tool, powered by Sean Koerner.
Texans vs. Cardinals
Brandon Anderson: According to our data at Action Labs, teams that are 4-1 or 5-1 ATS are only 36-65-3 (36%) ATS in their next game. And when a team is an underdog against one of those over-inflated ATS teams, it’s a whopping 49-20-1 ATS, covering 71% of the time from 4.54 points per game with a 37% ROI. This is a serious advantage. And that goes for Texans.
It’s disgusting, but we have to do it; it’s purely a numbers game. We still have a few trends in our favor. Teams that have lost by 17 points or more to teams that have just won by at least 17 points are 96-59-4 ATS, covering 62% of the time. This makes sense, as it naturally leads to a swollen line. And underdogs with a -14 or worse scoring margin in their last five games like Houston are 117-78-6 ATS, covering 60% of the time.
The Cardinals are unbeaten and now have two really impressive road wins over the Rams and Browns, but that “0” at the end of their record means that line is bloated. The look-ahead line was -14 before dropping to -17 after it reopened this week, but you should know that our Action Labs database has no instances of an undefeated team favored by 17 or more covering the deviation any time after September. These teams are 0-6 ATS, covering no more than 10 points. It is the interminable law of regression. What goes up must come down.
If you’re looking for footballing reasons to feel good with the Texans, you won’t find much. This is why this line is so high and rising, because the books know you sure wouldn’t be crazy enough to bet Houston. This is exactly why we have to do it. Houston’s only relative strength is their passing defense, which ranks respectable 11th in the Football Outsiders DVOA. It gives some hope against a heavy passing team. Beyond that, it’s just a gamble on regression.
The Cardinals have recovered 16 of 21 fumbles so far while the Texans have recovered only two of nine fumbles they have forced. The chance to grope is almost entirely random, which should soon switch the other way for both teams. And they were incredibly good in the third and fourth downs, so that should go down. The cards are hot, but they cannot stay that way forever. This is how the NFL works. It’s a big disappointment for the Cardinals. They come off big wins against the Rams, 49ers and Browns and are taking a break before games against the Packers and Niners. The Cardinals are also in the process of overcoming a team-based COVID outbreak.