Ohio State vs. Villanova Odds

Ohio State vs. Villanova will be one of the most entertaining games of the second round. Jay Wright and Chris Holtmann execute slow-paced attacks for their dominant shooters.

Look for Collin Gillespie against Malaki Branham in the backcourt. Next, look for EJ Liddell against Jermaine Samuels in the frontcourt.

Holtmann hasn’t made it past the second round of the Big Dance yet, so there’s a lot at stake in this match. But can Holtmann pull off the upset as a five-point dog?

However, Loyola laid an egg in her 41-point performance. The Ramblers couldn’t buy a layup or make their shots easy. ShotQuality projected Loyola should have scored 10 more points on the rim, nine more points on 3-pointers and four more points on free throws.

Loyola’s defense didn’t play well either. Ohio State shot 60 percent from inside the arc, with Branham and Liddell combining for 30 of 9 for 13 shooting in that range.

Instead, Ohio State scored just 54 points due to a 1-for-15-of-3 shooting performance.

What do we do with it? Two things.

First, Ohio State needs to make its 3 against Villanova. The Buckeyes will have plenty of opportunities against a Villanova defense that allows a 43% 3-point rate against the opposition. But we also know the Wildcats will turn off the lights starting at 3, and the Buckeyes not getting theirs is a death sentence.

Second, Ohio State will have inside advantages. Wright is playing small ball, and Liddell, Kyle Young and Joey Brunk could take advantage of that.

How will the small formation of Nova behave against Ohio State?

Not terrible. The Wildcats finished above average in SQ PPP allowed in pick-and-roll situations, post-up situations, and at the rim. Cats are small but will play smart and hold serve.

Villanova’s attack should roll. Defenses led by Holtmann have never been particularly strong, and the Buckeyes have fallen outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency this season.

Ohio State doesn’t pressure the ball either, finishing under 330 in defensive turnover rate and steal rate. Gillespie won’t return the ball and the Cats will take plenty of shots.

If anything, Villanova is more comprehensive than Ohio State. The Wildcats are so strong and solid on both sides of the ball, and the roster is very experienced.

Ohio State vs. Villanova betting picks

KenPom makes this Villanova -4 spread. BartTorvik makes Villanova -3.7. ShotQuality actually renders the Ohio State -2 spread, which is surprising.

Therefore, I think the value is with Ohio State.

Additionally, the Buckeyes lit up one of our Action PRO systems, NCAA Tournament Defensive Teams. This includes March Madness teams that allow less than 60 points in the previous game and open like a dog in the next game.

These teams mesh well with each other and play equally slow styles. Both are going to be very comfortable, and I’m ready to believe in a very tight and entertaining game.

I’ll take the points.

Take: Ohio State +5.5 (Play to +5)