Perry’s 5 straight bets, including Tommy Fleetwood
Click the arrow to expand AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 odds via PointsBet
AT&T Byron Nelson Odds 2022
|If Woo Kim||+5000|
|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+6600|
|Charles Howell III||+8000|
|Matthew Ne Smith||+8000|
|List of Luke||+10000|
|ryan palm tree||+10000|
|Joo Hyung Kim||+15000|
|Andrew D. Putnam||+20000|
|Dawie Van der Walt||+50000|
All seconds are not equal. Matthew Fitzpatrick came in second for us on Sunday, but he never felt like he was in contention any time during the week.
Instead, Max Homa emerged victorious for the second time this season and the third time in 15 months. That win rate will catch the eye of the majors, and it’s still available at a decent price, reaching 100-1 just a few spots to the PGA Championship and US Open.
Homa is probably worth a look at those numbers, given the quality of his previous wins. Victories at Quail Hollow and Riviera speak for themselves in terms of major talent, and Francesco Molinari used TPC Potomac as a catapult to his Open Championship just months later.
We now watch the final tune for the PGA Championship with AT&T Byron Nelson this week.
TPC Craig Ranch is a par-72 from 7,468 yards on the outskirts of the Dallas metro area. This is the second time the course has hosted the event. Last year, KH Lee had the best week in irons of his career, winning more than eight strokes to beat Sam Burns by three strokes.
It was really easy by PGA TOUR standards with a par of 25 under the winning number. I imagine we will hit at least 20 below normal again unless weather plays a part.
Other than that, we don’t have much to do other than two old Korn Ferry events. The winners won’t tell you anything either, with Matt Bettencourt winning the title in 2008 and Justin Bolli taking the lead in 2012.
Both Bettencourt and Bolli were above average iron players and had good short games, so that’s where I’ll be looking at this week. Lee ticked both of those boxes last year, earning more than four strokes with the putter to go along with a career-best approach week.
Scottie Scheffler opens at the top of the board with around +1000. He’s had three wins in his last five starts and the Texas ties are going in his favor this week.
Justin Thomas is the only one to be close this week in the odds, opening at +1200. He’s been solid for a while with six top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts, but he hasn’t really been in contention in those weeks.
After that we have Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama all available in the +2000 range. Burns was the aforementioned runner-up a year ago, while Spieth was ninth.
I will open this range with Davis Riley at +6500. I obviously bet on him pretty much every week, but he deserves writing this time. He’s finished in the top five in three of his last five starts and has Dallas-area ties, so it should be a comfortable event. Ball striking hasn’t always been great in these top finishes, but the putter is hot right now, and that’s what whoever wins will need it.
I also go with jhonattan vegas at +5500 on PointsBet. Vegas was a disaster off the tee last week, dropping five strokes, but still finished 15th thanks to the best approach week of his career. If the irons are close to that this week, he should be struggling on a course where he finished ninth last year.
Then, I go Tommy Fleetwood at +6500 on FanDuel. I really had no intention of playing Fleetwood this week, but I’m going to bite into that. Plus, he’s 40-1 or less in most other books.
Prior to missing the cut at the Zurich Classic, Fleetwood had not finished in stroke play worse than 22nd in his previous five starts. The iron game has been a concern much of the past year both on the PGA TOUR and in Europe, but it has gained ground there in three consecutive events now. The short game is probably as good as ever right now and has really worn it the past few months as his usual regular ball-striking has gone awry.
In this range, I will Patrick Rodgers at 200-1 on PointsBet. Rodgers was 10th two weeks ago in Mexico and 21st in New Orleans with Brandon Wu. Rodgers has earned approach shots in six of his last seven starts. He struggled with the putter this year, which has normally been a strength for him, but he seemed to have it figured out in Mexico to some degree where he won five shots on the greens.
We will also go to the Zurich Classic partner of Rodgers Brandon Wu, which is also 200-1 on PointsBet. Wu finished second in Mexico and third in Puerto Rico, so he has worked his way into the race this season. After struggling much of the season, he also made five straight cuts before missing the weekend at Wells Fargo. So he’s been able to string together some consistency for a few months now.
With this card we’ll have room for a live add or two, which is how we hit Lee last year when he was +6600 and trailing Spieth by two after a strong first round.
The Byron Nelson Card
- Jhonattan Vegas +5500 (.6 units)
- Davis Riley +6500 (.5 units)
- Tommy Fleetwood +6500 (.5 units)
- Brandon Wu +20000 (.17 units)
- Patrick Rodgers +20000 (.17 units)
Total bet: 2.04 units