Premier League best bets and preview
After picking up a 50/1 first goalscorer last weekend, Tom Carnduff has two more big-money fantasies as Crystal Palace host Manchester City on Monday Night Football.
Football Betting Tips: Premier League
0.75pt ew John Stones to score first at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
0.75pt and Aymeric Laporte scores first at 25/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
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Manchester City are the second best team in the Premier League for goals from set pieces this season, Crystal Palace are the second worst team. There’s an obvious reason why I was looking forward to previewing this game, but I’ll get to that in a bit.
Visitors can enter this one with just a three-point lead at the top as Liverpool take on Brighton on Saturday. They find themselves embroiled in a title race once again and every point counts – neither they nor Liverpool appear to be losing.
For Palace, their campaign was a relative success with established mid-table security. They too beat City on their trip to the Etihad earlier this season – although we shouldn’t expect a similar result this time around.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
As always, City’s involvement affects the markets and everything works in their favour. That’s why set pieces could provide a way to achieve City’s goals and profit from them.
The visitors are expected to rack up the number of corners with 7+ at odds of just 8/13. It’s no surprise when they average a league-high 8.64 per game.
Palace’s set-piece defense has been problematic all season and although it eased somewhat in the second half of the campaign, it is still seen as a vulnerable area.
Watford struck from a corner when they met Palace a few weeks ago, while Virgil van Dijk headed in a similar situation when Liverpool won at Selhurst Park – a goal that landed a winning tip 7/1.
A player I’ve adored recently is John Stones and I’m more than happy to have a game each way on 33/1 for FIRST MARKERS Monday evening.
We backed him to do it against Sporting in the Champions League and it almost happened. He managed an effort over the crossbar late with the score at 0-0 – it was a chance that Infogol valued at 34%.
It was their third-highest in the contest and it remains true that Stones are City’s biggest threat in the air. His 3.7 aerial duels won in the Premier League are the highest of this City side.
The centre-back is going at a pace of 0.5 shots per Premier League game with an average of 1.0 shots per outing in the Champions League to go with him.
While Stones had the third biggest opportunity, it was fellow defender Aymeric Laporte with the second. On 25/1, we are also in the round trip for LAPORTE MARKS THE FIRST.
He may have a lower average of 1.3 antennas earned, but his shooting number is considerably higher than Stones. His average is 1.2 per game – with three league goals this season.
That 26th-minute effort against Sporting had a 40% odds rating on Infogol, which highlights the types of situations he finds himself in. With Nathan Ake and Ruben Dias on the sidelines, this should be City’s starting defensive duo.
With City’s outright price offering little of interest, the best bet is to back ROCKS Where THE DOOR strike first.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 0.75pt ew John Stones to score first at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
- 0.75pt and Aymeric Laporte scores first at 25/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet Odds: 5/1)
Odds correct as of 15:00 GMT (03/11/22)
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