Tesla’s 2021 annual results will be released on Wednesday, January 26, and I think we’ll find that Tesla’s revenue has a good chance of surpassing 17 Dow components. As we always do, we’ll be covering the livestream with goofy chat action, cool analyst charts, and awesome music on the Clean Technica Youtube channel.

Elon Musk would be there and update us all on new product announcements. I’m speculating, but it could cover Solar Roof, Megapack, Austin and Berlin gigafactories, new gigafactories, Tesla Semi, Tesla Cybertruck, Tesla Robot, FSD, Superchargers, retail centers or the smallest vehicle out of Shanghai. I don’t imagine he’ll be talking about 4680 batteries or hiring AI/machine learning.

For the past two weeks, I’ve wondered how Tesla’s Q4 2021 revenue would compare to the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA for short). Coincidentally, I read a Say.com question from retail investors for Tesla’s conference call regarding the DJIA. The question is:

“Stock split: Can we please get a stock split? It has become more difficult to buy Tesla shares over $1000 for us retail investors. would be nice to be part of the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

(To retail investors unable to buy a full Tesla stock, I say switch accounts to another brokerage. Fractional stocks are commonplace now, thanks to the growing popularity of trading during the pandemic.)

Which components does Dow Tesla top in terms of quarterly revenue?

On the charts!

All estimated revenue figures are from Estimize.com.

I estimate Tesla’s Q4 2021 revenue will be close to $17.5 billion. Estimize.com gives Tesla a revenue point estimate of $16.690 billion, with a range of $11.250 billion to $23.250 billion for fourth quarter 2021 revenue. We can see that Tesla’s expected fourth quarter revenue exceed 17 Dow components. These include well-known companies such as Nike, Coke, Goldman Sachs, Visa and American Express. Based on earnings, would Tesla qualify to be in the Dow? The short answer is: Yes! The S&P 500 may not yet consider Tesla a blue-chip, but we all will, in time.

Tesla’s expected revenue overtakes Boeing and Caterpillar, close to Intel

Two of the largest manufacturing companies in the Dow Jones are Boeing and Caterpillar. They are estimated to have fourth quarter revenue of $16.48 billion and $13.165 billion, respectively. If my estimates are close, Tesla will exceed both. I was amazed when I first realized this fact. Tesla did not exist 15 years ago. Boeing traces its origins back to 1916 and Caterpillar was launched in 1892! If the Dow added Tesla to its index, it would be the second manufacturer present, behind Intel. Because the Dow is a price-weighted index, Tesla would have the highest weight. It’s probably forbidden at this point and a good reason to split the stock in the future. Tesla’s growth in a short time is enormous.

Conservatively, if Tesla grows 50% next year, its $26.25 billion in Q4 2022 revenue will surpass Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Proctor & Gamble and The Walt Disney Company. That means there’s a good chance Tesla will top 21 Dow components in revenue by the end of the year. It takes a lot of growth to overtake fossil fuel champion Chevron in energy. Give it a few more years, and it will happen.

Tesla’s estimated Q4 2022 revenue vs. Dow’s estimated Q4 2021 component revenue. Source: Author

Conclusion

Purists and haters will say that Toyota, Ford and GM all have more revenue right now. I agree. All three won’t be added to the Dow anytime soon. GM was kicked out when it declared bankruptcy. That doesn’t take away from Tesla’s accomplishments. On its own, Tesla has become a manufacturing and technology powerhouse, against all odds. It’s only a matter of time before it catches up with Toyota, Ford and GM in revenue. The largest companies in the Dow by revenue are Walmart, Apple and UnitedHealth Group. Tesla has a long way to go to catch up with them. Thinking about it, note that Apple has been around for over 40 years.

Whatever earnings and revenue look like when it’s released on Wednesday, whatever the stock does or Technoking Elon Musk says, let’s celebrate Tesla’s accomplishments. She pushed and pulled humanity towards a better future. Since 2022 feels like 2021 and 2020, with no end to the pandemic in sight, any good news is cause for gratitude. I wish my readers a happy new year 2022!!

Note: I currently own Tesla stocks and options, intending to buy more next week. Nothing written here is investment advice. Nothing. Suppose it was deleted from memory after reading.

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