Will the Mustangs hit the season premiere?
SMU vs Louisiana Tech odds
The SMU Mustangs are posting double-digit numbers for the third straight game as the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs look to play spoiler for the second time in three weeks.
Here’s everything bettors need to know for the Week 3 non-conference tilt.
Southern Methodist Mustangs
Fast starts in September are nothing new for head coach Sonny Dykes.
The Mustangs have a perfect 8-0 straight, 6-2 ATS record there for the past three years. The back half of the schedule is another story for a different day, but SMU can certainly still score with the best of them.
And it all starts with the nation’s leader in touchdown passes at the start of week three.
Quarterback Tanner Mordecai had big shoes to fill to succeed Shane Buechele, who led SMU to the top 10 in total yards each of the past two seasons.
The Oklahoma transfer apparently makes its own way. Mordecai took advantage of a few suspicious defenses to start, adding 629 passing yards and 11 scores. SMU as a whole is fourth in the country in yards per game (8.4).
The eighth-ranked offense for passing success rate is riddled with playmakers. Four skilled players already have multiple touchdowns – and that list doesn’t include Reggie Roberson, who is arguably the most valuable player. of this unit.
Defense of Mustangs
SMU probably needs his defense to be just average in order to make waves in AAC. We didn’t learn much in Game 1 against Abilene Christian, but the Mustangs limited an explosive attack from North Texas – which possessed the ball for nearly 37 minutes – to just 13 points and 5.2 yards. per game last week.
The unit created many big plays, recording five interceptions and three forced fumbles in two games.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana Tech was this close to upsetting Mississippi State out of the SEC in Week 1. The Bulldogs, scoring +23.5, unfortunately spat out a late 20-point lead and lost outright.
Tech flew over the total in this game, which is hardly surprising: The Bulldogs typically play barn burners when they get points, hitting the most in four of their last five games as underdogs.
They conceded another last week, albeit in the favorite role, narrowly escaping Southeast Louisiana, 45-42.
Mordecai isn’t the only Big 12 quarterback to take part in Saturday’s tilt. Austin Kendall, who played in both Oklahoma and West Virginia, will start for the Bulldogs.
The senior completed just north of 60% of his passing attempts this season, with 489 yards and three touchdowns. He was also a threat as a runner, picking up 78 extra yards and two more scores.
Despite the small sample size, Bulldogs performed much better in the air (# 54 in pass rate) than on the ground (# 108 in pass rate on ground).
You can live by awarding 35 points for an SEC air raid offense, but letting an FCS team lead you to 42 in a near victory is simply unacceptable.
It might have been a hangover after the Week 1 loss, but La Tech showed no resistance. The defense let quarterback Cole Kelley rip off 495 yards on 44 of 59 assists and five total scores, all in a mostly neutral state of play; not a single statistic was collected in garbage time.
My deepest condolences to the unit with SMU coming to town.
SMU vs Louisiana Tech match analysis
Toggle the drop-down lists below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between SMU and Louisiana Tech:
SMU offensive against Louisiana Tech Defense
Louisiana Tech Offensive Against SMU Defense
Pace of play / Other
SMU bet choice against Louisiana Tech
No need to root the defenses here, as they won’t exist.
SMU fell under the total in both games, but it’s not a buying trend. The Mustangs missed the point total in Game 1 and then had the ball for less than 24 minutes against North Texas (the Mustangs were thrown for 43.7 points if they had owned the ball for 30 minutes, using points divided by possession time).
SMU conceded four straight wins as a road favorite, while Louisiana Tech topped the total in 15 of 17 against teams with record road wins. Two former Big 12 quarterbacks playing behind offensive lines that are stellar to prevent havoc will lick their chops against these secondaries.
To take: Over 66 (play up to 68)
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